More than 1 million Dutch FTTH subscribers by 2013

05 06 2009 – The Dutch fibre-to-the-home market is set to steal significant market share from ADSL and cable operators over the next few years.

The number of homes passed almost doubled in 2008 to an estimated 336,500 by year-end. During the first quarter of 2009 the number expanded further to 361,700, held back somewhat by fierce weather conditions. We expect Reggefiber Group, the main investor of the new infrastructure, to increase its build-out capacity further. We estimate the market to end 2009 with more than 500,000 homes passed, and by 2013, we foresee this number to cross the 2 million mark.

Research firm Telecompaper is publishing its annual review of the Dutch FTTH market. The report discusses a wide range of related topics, including technology, regulation, the role of the government, financial aspects and the fibre-related strategies of the leading market participants. We have conducted almost 20 interviews across the Dutch fibre market, speaking with C-level executives.

We think that the Dutch market could lead the way internationally. At the end of 2008, the Netherlands ranked second in the group of 30 OECD countries, with a broadband penetration of 35.8 percent, second only to Denmark. When it comes to fibre however, the Netherlands ranks eleventh. Now that KPN has decided to join forces with Reggefiber and Opta has regulation in place, FTTH is ready to leap forward and be a serious competitor to ADSL and cable. However, inhibitors remain, including cable’s aggressive Docsis 3.0 roll-out, limited supply of construction workers for the physical roll-out of the new infrastructure and KPN’s legacy ADSL networks, which may tempt the incumbent to migrate to fibre at a modest pace.

Based on a number of drivers, inhibitors, and several unresolved issues, we have made three scenarios for the Dutch FTTH market in the 2009-2013 period. Our estimates cover the number of homes passed, homes connected as well as the number of homes activated, i.e. the number of paying subscribers.

For the number of homes passed, we estimate a CAGR of 50.6 percent to end the 2009-2013 period at 2.04 million homes. We expect the number of homes activated to display a 46.4 percent CAGR to end the period with 1.07 million connections. The latter represents 13.4 percent of all Dutch homes (from less than 2% currently).

Source: cat-iq